Microsoft and Others Near Death Cross, Indicating Potential Weakness
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 21 2026
0mins
Should l Buy MSFT?
Source: CNBC
- Death Cross Risk: Microsoft's 50-day moving average at $482.65 is perilously close to its 200-day average of $482.96, indicating potential downside risk that could undermine investor confidence and affect stock performance.
- Market Volatility: U.S. equities faced significant fluctuations amid Trump's push to acquire Greenland, with a sharp drop on Tuesday followed by a rebound on Wednesday after he ruled out military intervention, highlighting market sentiment instability.
- Paramount Skydance Lawsuit: Paramount Skydance's 50-day moving average of $14.03 is nearing its 200-day average of $13.91, and the company has initiated a lawsuit against Warner Bros. Discovery as part of a hostile takeover plan, potentially increasing market uncertainty.
- NetApp Downgrade: Morgan Stanley downgraded NetApp from equal weight to underweight due to rising component costs and softer tech spending, resulting in a 22% decline in the stock over the past 12 months, reflecting challenges faced by the industry.
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Analyst Views on MSFT
Wall Street analysts forecast MSFT stock price to rise
34 Analyst Rating
32 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 403.930
Low
500.00
Averages
631.36
High
678.00
Current: 403.930
Low
500.00
Averages
631.36
High
678.00
About MSFT
Microsoft Corporation is a technology company that develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions. Its Productivity and Business Processes segment consists of products and services in its portfolio of productivity, communication, and information services, spanning a variety of devices and platforms. It comprises Microsoft 365 Commercial products and cloud services; Microsoft 365 Consumer products and cloud services; LinkedIn, and Dynamics products and cloud services. The Intelligent Cloud segment consists of its public, private, and hybrid server products and cloud services. It comprises server products and cloud services, including Azure, and enterprise and partner services, including Enterprise Support Services. Its More Personal Computing segment primarily comprises Windows and Devices, including Windows OEM licensing; Gaming, including Xbox hardware and Xbox content; Search and news advertising, comprising Bing and Copilot, Microsoft News, and Microsoft Edge.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Increased Quantum Investment: Microsoft is heavily investing in its quantum computing ecosystem, introducing the Majorana 1 quantum processor aimed at enhancing computational stability and reducing errors, laying the groundwork for future commercialization.
- Data Center Expansion: The company added nearly 1 gigawatt of data center capacity in Q2 to address the challenge of Azure service demand exceeding supply, demonstrating its ongoing investment and strategic positioning in cloud infrastructure.
- Rapid AI Application Adoption: Microsoft’s Copilot user base surged over 160% year-over-year to 15 million paid users, showcasing its ability to successfully leverage AI in enterprise workflows, further driving revenue growth.
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- Contract Dispute Resolution: The Information Technology Industry Council (ITI) stated in their letter that contract disputes should be resolved through negotiations or by the Department selecting alternative providers, rather than imposing supply chain risk designations, which could adversely affect U.S. companies.
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- Surge in Enterprise Demand: Anthropic's business now derives 80% from enterprise customers, with an annual revenue run rate nearing $20 billion, up from $14 billion just weeks ago, indicating strong demand and potential market leadership in the enterprise AI sector.
- Regulatory Risk: The Trump administration's designation of Anthropic as a supply chain risk after it refused the Pentagon's terms has led to defense contractors dropping its technology, which could significantly impact customer trust and market share.
- Shift in Technology Reliance: As the government scrutinizes Anthropic, companies are reassessing their reliance on a single AI provider, with many evaluating multiple vendors simultaneously to mitigate risks, potentially altering the supply chain dynamics across the industry.
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- Significant Cloud Growth: In Q2 of fiscal 2026, Microsoft reported a 16.7% year-over-year revenue increase to $81.3 billion, with cloud services contributing $51.5 billion, up 26%, indicating strong market demand and sustained growth potential.
- Increased Quantum Investment: Microsoft is heavily investing in its quantum computing ecosystem, introducing the Majorana 1 quantum processor aimed at enhancing computational stability and reducing errors, laying the groundwork for future commercialization.
- Data Center Expansion: The company added nearly 1 gigawatt of data center capacity in Q2 to address the challenge of Azure service demand exceeding supply, demonstrating its ongoing investment and strategic positioning in cloud infrastructure.
- Rapid AI Application Adoption: Microsoft’s Copilot user base surged over 160% year-over-year to 15 million paid users, showcasing its ability to successfully leverage AI in enterprise workflows, further driving revenue growth.
See More
Tech Industry Raises Alarm Over Supply Chain Risk Designation by Defense Secretary
- Supply Chain Risk Warning: On March 2, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced the designation of AI company Anthropic as a supply chain risk to national security, prompting strong opposition from the tech industry, particularly from ITI members including Nvidia and Google.
- Contract Dispute Resolution: The Information Technology Industry Council (ITI) stated in their letter that contract disputes should be resolved through negotiations or by the Department selecting alternative providers, rather than imposing supply chain risk designations, which could adversely affect U.S. companies.
- Historic Decision: Anthropic, awarded a $200 million DoD contract in July, had its request to ensure its technology wouldn't be used for autonomous weapons or mass surveillance rejected by the Pentagon, leading to this unprecedented risk designation, which ITI argues has never been applied to an American company before.
- Industry Reaction: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman remarked that enforcing the SCR designation on Anthropic would have detrimental effects on the industry and the country, highlighting the tech sector's significant concern and unease regarding government policies.
See More
HubSpot and Other Software Stocks Are Recovering; Anticipate Upcoming Developments.
Software Stocks Recovery: Software stocks are showing signs of recovery after a period of decline due to concerns about AI impacting their business.
Investor Concerns: Investors may soon discover which companies are truly at risk from the rise of artificial intelligence.
See More
Investors Claim Microsoft Stock is Cheap at Current Prices
- Stock Price Decline Context: Microsoft has seen a 15% drop in stock price this year, making it the largest victim of the broader sell-off in the software sector, with investors expressing concerns over potential disruptions from artificial intelligence; however, some investors on CNBC's program challenged this view.
- Investor Position Increase: Steve Weiss, CIO of Short Hills Capital, and Bill Baruch, founder of Blue Line Capital, have recently increased their positions in Microsoft, asserting that the company is well-positioned in the AI space, and while some damage may occur, the overall outlook remains positive.
- Valuation Support Analysis: Baruch noted that Microsoft is currently trading two standard deviations below its long-run price-to-earnings ratio, which he sees as a significant support level, suggesting that the recent price decline could represent a long-term buying opportunity and recommending investors consider increasing their Microsoft holdings to a weight level.
- Market Recovery Expectations: Joe Terranova from Virtus Investment Partners views Microsoft as a proxy for OpenAI, stating that if the software sector rebounds, Microsoft's stock will rise, and despite some investors' concerns about the sustainability of Azure's growth, he believes these fears are unfounded.
See More
Anthropic Faces Regulatory Challenges Amid Rapid Growth
- Surge in Enterprise Demand: Anthropic's business now derives 80% from enterprise customers, with an annual revenue run rate nearing $20 billion, up from $14 billion just weeks ago, indicating strong demand and potential market leadership in the enterprise AI sector.
- Regulatory Risk: The Trump administration's designation of Anthropic as a supply chain risk after it refused the Pentagon's terms has led to defense contractors dropping its technology, which could significantly impact customer trust and market share.
- Shift in Technology Reliance: As the government scrutinizes Anthropic, companies are reassessing their reliance on a single AI provider, with many evaluating multiple vendors simultaneously to mitigate risks, potentially altering the supply chain dynamics across the industry.
- Legal Challenges and Brand Impact: Anthropic plans to contest the government's supply chain risk designation legally; while its brand has benefited from consumer safety concerns, ongoing legal battles may affect investor confidence and the pace of market expansion.
See More
Bitcoin Surges Above $70K Amid Iran Outreach
- Money Flow Analysis: In early trading, positive money flows were observed in major stocks like Amazon, Meta, NVIDIA, and Tesla, indicating strong investor interest that could drive overall market gains.
- Bitcoin Market Dynamics: Bitcoin surged above $70K due to aggressive buying linked to Iran outreach, highlighting its nature as a speculative risk asset rather than a traditional hedge, which may attract more speculative investors.
- Crude Oil Inventory Changes: API reported a build of 5.6 million barrels in crude oil inventories, significantly exceeding the expected 2.2 million barrels, which may lead to price volatility and impact related energy stocks, necessitating investor vigilance.
- Investment Strategy Recommendations: Investors are advised to maintain long-term quality positions while tactically adding based on market signals to navigate current uncertainties and capitalize on emerging opportunities.
See More
