JP Morgan Keeps Neutral Rating on Target, Reduces Price Target to $100
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 10 2025
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Should l Buy TGT?
Source: Benzinga
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Analyst Views on TGT
Wall Street analysts forecast TGT stock price to fall
26 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
14 Hold
4 Sell
Hold
Current: 120.800
Low
80.00
Averages
98.83
High
126.00
Current: 120.800
Low
80.00
Averages
98.83
High
126.00
About TGT
Target Corporation is a general merchandise retailer selling products to its guests through its stores and digital channels. The Company offers customers, referred to as guests, everyday essentials and fashionable, differentiated merchandise at discounted prices. The majority of its stores offer a wide assortment of general merchandise and food. Its merchandise categories include apparel and accessories, beauty and household essentials, food and beverage, hardlines, and home furnishings and decor. Most of its stores are larger than 170,000 square feet, offer a variety of general merchandise and a full line of food items comparable to traditional supermarkets. Its digital channels include a wide merchandise and food assortment, including many items found in its stores, along with a complementary assortment sold by the Company and third parties. Its brands include A New Day, Ava & Viv, Cloud Island, Favorite Day, and others. It serves guests at nearly 2,000 stores and at Target.com.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Earnings Beat: Target Corporation reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.44 in Q4, surpassing analyst expectations and demonstrating the company's robust performance and profitability in the market.
- Analyst Optimism: Following this strong performance, analysts have raised their price targets for TGT stock, reflecting confidence in the company's continued growth potential and market position.
- Positive Market Reaction: The earnings beat is likely to drive an increase in Target's stock price, attracting more investor interest and enhancing the company's market standing and investment appeal.
- Strategic Growth Outlook: The strong Q4 results not only boost short-term shareholder confidence but also lay the groundwork for future strategic investments and expansions, indicating ongoing business growth potential.
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- Investment Strategy: Target Corporation plans to invest an additional $2 billion in 2026, including over $1 billion in capital expenditures and $1 billion in operating investments, aimed at accelerating growth and enhancing guest experience.
- Store Experience Enhancement: The retailer will implement the largest store refresh in a decade across all locations by updating floor plans and displays, which is expected to significantly improve customer satisfaction and strengthen brand loyalty.
- Technology Acceleration: Target will increase investments in new technologies and AI to enhance personalized shopping experiences, which is anticipated to drive growth in digital sales and improve operational efficiency.
- Category Strengthening: The company will focus on key categories such as home, beauty, baby, and food and beverage, planning to introduce more new products and unique brands in 2026 to meet the needs of modern families and enhance market competitiveness.
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- Signs of Recovery: Target's fourth-quarter revenue fell 1.5%, yet its non-GAAP earnings per share rose to $2.44, indicating significant cost control improvements that bolster investor confidence.
- Growth in New Revenue Streams: The company's non-merchandise sales grew over 25% year-over-year, with triple-digit growth in membership revenue from the Target Circle 360 program, showcasing the effectiveness of its diversification strategy.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management expects 2026 net sales to grow approximately 2% year-over-year, forecasting earnings per share between $7.50 and $8.50, implying a midpoint growth rate of about 5.7%, reflecting confidence in future performance.
- Strategic Investment Plan: Target announced a $5 billion capital expenditure plan for 2026, aiming to accelerate growth through store layout transformations, increased payroll and training, and enhanced technology applications to improve customer experience and drive sales growth.
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- Market Movements: The S&P 500 Index rose by 0.03%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.11%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index increased by 0.63%, reflecting a slight recovery in the market following reports of indirect contact between Iran and the US to negotiate an end to the conflict, despite ongoing global trade tensions.
- Employment Data Impact: The February ADP employment report indicated an increase of 63,000 jobs, surpassing expectations of 50,000, suggesting a resilient labor market that may support the stock market, while also raising concerns about Federal Reserve policy direction.
- Oil Price Fluctuations: Crude oil prices fell by over 1% after Iran proposed discussions with the US to end the conflict, compounded by Treasury Secretary's comments on potential 15% tariffs on imports, adding to market uncertainty.
- Economic Outlook: This week, the market will focus on US-Iran war news, corporate earnings, and economic data, with expectations for a slight decline in the February ISM services index and an increase of 3,000 in initial unemployment claims to 215,000, highlighting the complexities of economic recovery.
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- Strong Stock Performance: Target (TGT) shares have surged over 23% this year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, reflecting market optimism about its growth potential despite a 1.5% decline in fourth-quarter revenue.
- Improved Profitability: The company's non-GAAP earnings per share rose to $2.44, up from $2.41 a year ago, indicating effective cost control measures that bolster investor confidence even amid declining sales.
- Diversified Revenue Growth: Target's non-merchandise sales grew over 25% year-over-year in Q4, with membership revenue from Target Circle 360 experiencing triple-digit growth and double-digit growth in its digital advertising business, showcasing positive strides in exploring new revenue streams.
- Strategic Investment Plan: Target announced a $5 billion capital expenditure plan for 2026, aiming to accelerate growth through store layout transformations, increased payroll, and enhanced customer experience, despite a modest 2% sales growth forecast, demonstrating the company's commitment to future development.
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- Target Corp Price Increase: UBS has raised the price target for Target Corp from $130 to $144.
- Market Implications: This adjustment reflects UBS's positive outlook on Target's performance and potential growth in the retail sector.
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