Increased Tax Refunds Expected to Boost Retail Spending in 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 19 2026
0mins
Should l Buy BURL?
Source: Benzinga
- Increase in Refunds: The average individual tax refund in the U.S. rose to $2,290 in 2026 from $2,065 in 2025, marking an 11% increase, which will provide additional cash for budget-constrained households, likely driving retail spending.
- Impact of Stimulus Policies: Analysts predict that as the tax season progresses, the increase in refunds will widen, with households expected to receive approximately $1,000 in stimulus, directly influencing consumer spending behavior.
- Changing Spending Patterns: Lower and middle-income households tend to spend their refunds rather than save them, as evidenced by a 35% year-over-year increase in visits to the IRS website by February 6, indicating heightened awareness of refund amounts.
- Retail Market Outlook: Retailers catering to low-income consumers are expected to benefit the most in 2026, although inflation-driven budget constraints mean that spending will likely prioritize essentials before discretionary items.
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Analyst Views on BURL
Wall Street analysts forecast BURL stock price to rise
18 Analyst Rating
13 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 300.380
Low
310.00
Averages
334.62
High
363.00
Current: 300.380
Low
310.00
Averages
334.62
High
363.00
About BURL
Burlington Stores, Inc. is an off-price retailer of branded merchandise at everyday low prices. The Company’s stores offer an extensive selection of in-season, fashion-focused merchandise, including women’s ready-to-wear apparel, menswear, youth apparel, baby, beauty, footwear, accessories, home, toys, gifts and coats. Its broad selection provides a wide range of apparel, accessories and furnishings for all ages. It sells a broad selection of merchandise acquired directly from manufacturers and other suppliers. It has six distribution centers. Its three east coast distribution centers are located in Edgewater Park, New Jersey; Burlington, New Jersey; and Logan, New Jersey. Its three west coast distribution centers are located in San Bernardino, California, Redlands, California, and Riverside, California. These six distribution centers occupy an aggregate of 5,135,000 square feet, and each includes processing, shipping and storage capabilities. It operates in about 1,108 stores.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Unfavorable Earnings Forecast: Analyst Christopher Nardone projects a 2026 earnings per share of $7.35, which is about 4% below Wall Street consensus, highlighting that the current valuation already reflects a recovery that the business has yet to demonstrate, indicating market caution regarding Target's future performance.
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- Tax Refund Risk: Nardone acknowledges that projected tax refunds, expected to rise over 25% this year, could drive a near-term boost in discretionary spending, which he identifies as the biggest risk to his cautious call, while early moves from the new CEO have raised hopes for future momentum.
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