GEO Group Falls 16.2%, CoreCivic Declines 11.4%
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 20 2026
0mins
Source: moomoo
GEO Group Performance: The GEO Group reported a decline of 16.2% in its stock value.
CoreCivic Performance: CoreCivic experienced a decrease of 11.4% in its stock value.
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Analyst Views on CXW
Wall Street analysts forecast CXW stock price to rise
3 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 18.340
Low
28.00
Averages
30.00
High
32.00
Current: 18.340
Low
28.00
Averages
30.00
High
32.00
About CXW
CoreCivic, Inc. is a diversified, government-solutions company. The Company provides a range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. Its CoreCivic Safety segment consists of correctional and detention facilities that are owned or controlled via a long-term lease and managed by the Company, as well as those correctional and detention facilities owned by third parties but managed by the Company. The segment also provides transportation services. CoreCivic Community segment consists of residential reentry centers that are owned or controlled via a long-term lease and managed by the Company. The segment also includes electronic monitoring and case management services. CoreCivic Properties segment consists of correctional real estate properties owned by the Company.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Hahn Capital Management Acquires CoreCivic Shares
- New Position Disclosure: On February 25, 2026, Hahn Capital Management disclosed in an SEC filing that it acquired 241,322 shares of CoreCivic for approximately $4.61 million, marking a new investment that now represents 2.49% of its reportable equity assets.
- Financial Performance Recovery: CoreCivic reported a revenue of $604 million in Q4 2025, a 26% year-over-year increase, with net income reaching $116.5 million, up 69%, indicating improved financial health and projecting EPS guidance of $1.49 to $1.59 for 2026.
- Market Performance Lag: As of February 24, 2026, CoreCivic's stock was priced at $16.47, down 9.7% over the past year and trailing the S&P 500 by 24.81 percentage points, reflecting market caution regarding its future growth prospects.
- Share Buyback Signal: In 2025, CoreCivic repurchased 11.2 million shares, signaling management's confidence in the company's intrinsic value, while this move is viewed as a contrarian bet in a portfolio otherwise focused on asset-light and industrial investments.
See More
ICE Plans to Reduce Detention Facility Network
- Detention Network Reduction: According to a Bloomberg report, ICE plans to reduce its network from over 200 detention centers to only 34 government-owned locations, significantly impacting revenue sources for GEO Group and CoreCivic, which together hold about 58% of ICE detainees.
- High Contract Dependency: Contracts from ICE account for nearly half of GEO's projected revenue of $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion for 2026, while ICE revenues represent 40% of CoreCivic's total fourth-quarter revenue, indicating a high sensitivity to changes in ICE policy.
- New Contracts and Expansion: In 2025, GEO Group entered into new contracts to provide approximately 6,000 beds across four facilities, increasing ICE's total capacity from about 20,000 to approximately 26,000 beds, although future reliance will primarily be on government facilities, with private companies still involved in service provision.
- Negative Market Reaction: Shares of GEO and CoreCivic fell by 52% and 12%, respectively, following the announcement of ICE's reduction plan, reflecting market concerns over the policy change, while retail investor sentiment trended towards 'bullish'.
See More
GEO Group Falls 16.2%, CoreCivic Declines 11.4%
GEO Group Performance: The GEO Group reported a decline of 16.2% in its stock value.
CoreCivic Performance: CoreCivic experienced a decrease of 11.4% in its stock value.
See More
Stock Prices of Prison Operators Decline
Prison Operators' Failures: Recent reports highlight significant failures among prison operators, leading to concerns about safety and management within correctional facilities.
Impact on Inmates: The shortcomings in prison operations have direct negative effects on inmates, including increased violence and inadequate access to rehabilitation programs.
Calls for Reform: Advocacy groups are urging for reforms in the prison system to address these operational failures and improve conditions for both inmates and staff.
Government Response: There is growing pressure on government officials to take action and implement changes to ensure better oversight and accountability in prison operations.
See More
CoreCivic Reports Strong Q4 2025 Earnings with Significant Revenue Growth
- New Contracts Drive Revenue Growth: CoreCivic's new awards in the second half of 2025 are expected to generate approximately $260 million annually, further solidifying its position in the federal detention market, although the Midwest facility faces delays due to a special use permit application.
- Financial Performance Exceeds Expectations: In Q4 2025, CoreCivic reported a GAAP EPS of $0.26 and an adjusted EPS of $0.27, reflecting a 69% increase from Q4 2024, demonstrating significant improvements in operational efficiency and cost control.
- EBITDA Continues to Grow: The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 reached $92.5 million, a 25% increase year-over-year, highlighting strong revenue growth under ICE contracts, despite a decline in revenue from the U.S. Marshals Service.
- Capital Expenditure and Buyback Plans: CoreCivic plans to spend $60 million to $70 million on maintenance capital expenditures in 2026 and continues to prioritize share repurchases, indicating confidence in future growth and a commitment to enhancing shareholder value.
See More
Turiya Advisors Sells Entire Position in CoreCivic
- Share Sale Overview: Turiya Advisors Asia Ltd sold its entire position of 479,000 shares in CoreCivic (CXW) during Q4, with an estimated transaction value of $9.75 million, indicating a strategic shift in its investment approach.
- Impact of Holdings Change: This sale occurred against the backdrop of CoreCivic's recent quarterly revenue of $604 million and net income of $26.5 million, suggesting that investors may be reallocating their portfolios rather than expressing pessimism about the company's outlook.
- Financial Performance Analysis: CoreCivic reported $2.2 billion in revenue and $116.5 million in net income for FY 2025, with expectations for 2026 net income between $147.5 million and $157.5 million, demonstrating the stability and growth potential of its business.
- Market Risk Assessment: Despite CoreCivic's leverage of 2.8 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA and an expanding credit facility, the stock still faces regulatory risks and market volatility, which could impact investor confidence.
See More
Hahn Capital Management Acquires CoreCivic Shares
- New Position Disclosure: On February 25, 2026, Hahn Capital Management disclosed in an SEC filing that it acquired 241,322 shares of CoreCivic for approximately $4.61 million, marking a new investment that now represents 2.49% of its reportable equity assets.
- Financial Performance Recovery: CoreCivic reported a revenue of $604 million in Q4 2025, a 26% year-over-year increase, with net income reaching $116.5 million, up 69%, indicating improved financial health and projecting EPS guidance of $1.49 to $1.59 for 2026.
- Market Performance Lag: As of February 24, 2026, CoreCivic's stock was priced at $16.47, down 9.7% over the past year and trailing the S&P 500 by 24.81 percentage points, reflecting market caution regarding its future growth prospects.
- Share Buyback Signal: In 2025, CoreCivic repurchased 11.2 million shares, signaling management's confidence in the company's intrinsic value, while this move is viewed as a contrarian bet in a portfolio otherwise focused on asset-light and industrial investments.
See More
ICE Plans to Reduce Detention Facility Network
- Detention Network Reduction: According to a Bloomberg report, ICE plans to reduce its network from over 200 detention centers to only 34 government-owned locations, significantly impacting revenue sources for GEO Group and CoreCivic, which together hold about 58% of ICE detainees.
- High Contract Dependency: Contracts from ICE account for nearly half of GEO's projected revenue of $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion for 2026, while ICE revenues represent 40% of CoreCivic's total fourth-quarter revenue, indicating a high sensitivity to changes in ICE policy.
- New Contracts and Expansion: In 2025, GEO Group entered into new contracts to provide approximately 6,000 beds across four facilities, increasing ICE's total capacity from about 20,000 to approximately 26,000 beds, although future reliance will primarily be on government facilities, with private companies still involved in service provision.
- Negative Market Reaction: Shares of GEO and CoreCivic fell by 52% and 12%, respectively, following the announcement of ICE's reduction plan, reflecting market concerns over the policy change, while retail investor sentiment trended towards 'bullish'.
See More
GEO Group Falls 16.2%, CoreCivic Declines 11.4%
GEO Group Performance: The GEO Group reported a decline of 16.2% in its stock value.
CoreCivic Performance: CoreCivic experienced a decrease of 11.4% in its stock value.
See More
Stock Prices of Prison Operators Decline
Prison Operators' Failures: Recent reports highlight significant failures among prison operators, leading to concerns about safety and management within correctional facilities.
Impact on Inmates: The shortcomings in prison operations have direct negative effects on inmates, including increased violence and inadequate access to rehabilitation programs.
Calls for Reform: Advocacy groups are urging for reforms in the prison system to address these operational failures and improve conditions for both inmates and staff.
Government Response: There is growing pressure on government officials to take action and implement changes to ensure better oversight and accountability in prison operations.
See More
CoreCivic Reports Strong Q4 2025 Earnings with Significant Revenue Growth
- New Contracts Drive Revenue Growth: CoreCivic's new awards in the second half of 2025 are expected to generate approximately $260 million annually, further solidifying its position in the federal detention market, although the Midwest facility faces delays due to a special use permit application.
- Financial Performance Exceeds Expectations: In Q4 2025, CoreCivic reported a GAAP EPS of $0.26 and an adjusted EPS of $0.27, reflecting a 69% increase from Q4 2024, demonstrating significant improvements in operational efficiency and cost control.
- EBITDA Continues to Grow: The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 reached $92.5 million, a 25% increase year-over-year, highlighting strong revenue growth under ICE contracts, despite a decline in revenue from the U.S. Marshals Service.
- Capital Expenditure and Buyback Plans: CoreCivic plans to spend $60 million to $70 million on maintenance capital expenditures in 2026 and continues to prioritize share repurchases, indicating confidence in future growth and a commitment to enhancing shareholder value.
See More
Turiya Advisors Sells Entire Position in CoreCivic
- Share Sale Overview: Turiya Advisors Asia Ltd sold its entire position of 479,000 shares in CoreCivic (CXW) during Q4, with an estimated transaction value of $9.75 million, indicating a strategic shift in its investment approach.
- Impact of Holdings Change: This sale occurred against the backdrop of CoreCivic's recent quarterly revenue of $604 million and net income of $26.5 million, suggesting that investors may be reallocating their portfolios rather than expressing pessimism about the company's outlook.
- Financial Performance Analysis: CoreCivic reported $2.2 billion in revenue and $116.5 million in net income for FY 2025, with expectations for 2026 net income between $147.5 million and $157.5 million, demonstrating the stability and growth potential of its business.
- Market Risk Assessment: Despite CoreCivic's leverage of 2.8 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA and an expanding credit facility, the stock still faces regulatory risks and market volatility, which could impact investor confidence.
See More
