BigBear.AI Reports Mixed Q4 Results with Revenue Miss
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 day ago
0mins
Should l Buy BBAI?
Source: Benzinga
- Revenue Shortfall: BigBear.AI reported fourth-quarter revenue of $27.3 million, missing analyst expectations of $33.31 million, indicating challenges in revenue growth that could impact investor confidence moving forward.
- Improved Loss Per Share: The company reported a quarterly loss of one cent per share, beating expectations for a loss of six cents, suggesting improvements in cost control and operational efficiency that may lay the groundwork for future profitability.
- 2026 Revenue Guidance: BigBear.AI expects full-year 2026 revenue to range between $135 million and $165 million, although below analyst estimates of $164.29 million, it still reflects the company's confidence in future growth, potentially attracting long-term investor interest.
- Stock Price Reaction: Following the earnings announcement, BigBear.AI shares dipped 7.3% to $3.80 in pre-market trading, reflecting a cautious market sentiment towards the earnings results, which may affect short-term market performance.
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Analyst Views on BBAI
Wall Street analysts forecast BBAI stock price to rise
1 Analyst Rating
0 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 3.800
Low
6.00
Averages
6.00
High
6.00
Current: 3.800
Low
6.00
Averages
6.00
High
6.00
About BBAI
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. is a provider of artificial intelligence (AI)-powered decision intelligence solutions for national security, supply chain management and digital identity. The Company is a technology-led solutions organization, providing both software and services to its customers. It combines subject-matter expertise with technology to connect the enterprise, provide insights on process performance and recommendations for managing risk. It offers computer vision, anomaly/event detection, and descriptive and predictive analytics to support operations and break down silos between vendors and systems. The Company’s customers span the public and private sector, including the United States defense and intelligence agencies, border protection, transportation security, manufacturing, distribution and logistics, as well as travel, entertainment and tourism. It also offers software assets that are tailored for digital identity and biometrics, leveraging advanced vision AI technology.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
BigBear.ai Shares Plunge 21.4% Amid Tech Sell-Off
- Stock Decline: BigBear.ai's stock plummeted 21.4% in February, reflecting investor concerns over AI technology disrupting software industries and macroeconomic pressures, which have driven the company's valuation lower amid a bearish backdrop for tech stocks.
- Earnings Report: The company's Q4 results released on March 2 revealed a per-share loss of $0.01, beating analyst expectations by $0.05, yet sales of $27.3 million fell short of Wall Street's target by $6 million, indicating a significant competitive disadvantage in the market.
- Future Guidance: BigBear.ai targets sales between $135 million and $155 million for 2023, representing approximately 17% annual growth at the midpoint, but this outlook heavily relies on contributions from its acquisitions of Ask Sage and CargoSeer, highlighting pressure on its core business.
- Competitive Pressure: Despite the U.S. government signing contracts with AI service providers, BigBear.ai's recent sales momentum suggests its current product and service portfolio has not been sufficient to secure large contracts sustainably, increasing reliance on recent acquisitions for turnaround efforts.
See More
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- Stock Decline: BigBear.ai's share price fell by 21.4% in February, reflecting investor pessimism towards tech stocks, particularly amid concerns that AI technologies could disrupt software industries, leading to further declines in the company's valuation.
- Disappointing Earnings: Although BigBear.ai reported a Q4 loss of $0.01 per share, beating analyst expectations by $0.05, its revenue of $27.3 million fell short of Wall Street's target by $6 million, indicating significant pressure on the company's growth prospects.
- Annual Sales Guidance: The company targets sales between $135 million and $155 million for 2023, representing approximately 17% annual growth at the midpoint, but this outlook heavily relies on contributions from its acquisitions of Ask Sage and CargoSeer, highlighting weaknesses in its core business growth.
- Competitive Market Pressure: Despite the U.S. government signing contracts with AI service providers, BigBear.ai has struggled to secure sufficient business in line with increased defense tech spending, suggesting that its current product and service offerings have not been compelling enough to win substantial contracts sustainably, placing ongoing pressure on the company.
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Stock Performance: Big Bear.ai (NYSE: BBAI) has faced challenges in gaining traction in 2025, leading to long-term lows, but is expected to improve in 2026 due to resolved issues such as debt and high short interest.
Company Strengths: The company specializes in AI services, focusing on data ingestion, predictive analytics, and edge computing, which positions it well for growth, especially with recent acquisitions that enhance its federal market access.
Market Trends: Despite a significant increase in share counts and short interest, analysts remain optimistic about Big Bear.ai's potential for revenue growth and profitability, with upcoming earnings releases expected to show improvement.
Investment Outlook: Institutional buyers are stepping in, indicating confidence in the stock, while analysts suggest a potential rebound if the stock maintains support above critical price levels, with price targets reflecting a positive outlook.
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- Revenue Decline: BigBear.ai reported Q4 revenue of $27.3 million, a 38% drop from Wall Street's $33.3 million estimate, primarily due to lower demand in Army programs, indicating vulnerability in key contracts.
- Net Loss Report: The company posted a net loss of $5.8 million, or $0.01 per share, better than the consensus estimate of a $0.05 loss, reflecting ongoing pressure on profitability that may affect investor confidence.
- Analyst Price Target Cuts: H.C. Wainwright lowered its price target on BigBear.ai from $8 to $6 while maintaining a 'Buy' rating, and Cantor Fitzgerald reduced its target from $6 to $5, indicating cautious sentiment regarding future sales expectations.
- Acquisition and Debt Management: BigBear.ai completed a $250 million cash acquisition of Ask Sage and plans to reduce its convertible debt from approximately $142 million to about $17 million, aiming to enhance financial flexibility to support future growth.
See More
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- Cash Flow Strain: Despite claiming to be in its strongest financial position, the company incurred an operating loss of $213.9 million, significantly higher than last year's $133.4 million, suggesting that ongoing cash burn could hinder future growth.
- Disappointing Revenue Outlook: BigBear.ai projects revenue between $135 million and $165 million for 2026, with a 17% growth expectation, yet this falls short compared to last year's $158.2 million, reflecting a lack of market confidence in its future.
- Competitive Market Pressure: While comparisons to Palantir Technologies have excited investors, the decline in revenue from Army programs places BigBear.ai under increased competitive pressure, making stable growth unlikely in the near term.
See More
BigBear.AI Reports Mixed Q4 Results, Shares Decline
- Earnings Performance: BigBear.AI reported a Q4 loss of $0.01 per share, beating the consensus estimate of a $0.06 loss; however, revenue of $27.30 million fell short of the $33.30 million expectation and declined 38% year-over-year, primarily due to reduced volume in Army programs, indicating challenges in key sectors.
- Cash Flow Status: By the end of 2025, the company had total cash and investments of $462 million and successfully settled $125 million of its convertible notes in January 2026, demonstrating significant progress in financial foundations that set the stage for future growth.
- Future Outlook: BigBear.AI projects full-year 2026 revenue between $135 million and $165 million, slightly below the consensus estimate of $164.29 million, reflecting a cautious approach to restoring growth amid market uncertainties.
- Analyst Reactions: Following the earnings report, multiple analysts lowered their price targets, with HC Wainwright & Co. reducing its target from $8 to $6, and Cantor Fitzgerald lowering its target from $6 to $5, indicating market concerns regarding the company's future performance.
See More
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- Stock Decline: BigBear.ai's stock plummeted 21.4% in February, reflecting investor concerns over AI technology disrupting software industries and macroeconomic pressures, which have driven the company's valuation lower amid a bearish backdrop for tech stocks.
- Earnings Report: The company's Q4 results released on March 2 revealed a per-share loss of $0.01, beating analyst expectations by $0.05, yet sales of $27.3 million fell short of Wall Street's target by $6 million, indicating a significant competitive disadvantage in the market.
- Future Guidance: BigBear.ai targets sales between $135 million and $155 million for 2023, representing approximately 17% annual growth at the midpoint, but this outlook heavily relies on contributions from its acquisitions of Ask Sage and CargoSeer, highlighting pressure on its core business.
- Competitive Pressure: Despite the U.S. government signing contracts with AI service providers, BigBear.ai's recent sales momentum suggests its current product and service portfolio has not been sufficient to secure large contracts sustainably, increasing reliance on recent acquisitions for turnaround efforts.
See More
BigBear.ai Stock Faces Significant Pullback Amid AI Concerns
- Stock Decline: BigBear.ai's share price fell by 21.4% in February, reflecting investor pessimism towards tech stocks, particularly amid concerns that AI technologies could disrupt software industries, leading to further declines in the company's valuation.
- Disappointing Earnings: Although BigBear.ai reported a Q4 loss of $0.01 per share, beating analyst expectations by $0.05, its revenue of $27.3 million fell short of Wall Street's target by $6 million, indicating significant pressure on the company's growth prospects.
- Annual Sales Guidance: The company targets sales between $135 million and $155 million for 2023, representing approximately 17% annual growth at the midpoint, but this outlook heavily relies on contributions from its acquisitions of Ask Sage and CargoSeer, highlighting weaknesses in its core business growth.
- Competitive Market Pressure: Despite the U.S. government signing contracts with AI service providers, BigBear.ai has struggled to secure sufficient business in line with increased defense tech spending, suggesting that its current product and service offerings have not been compelling enough to win substantial contracts sustainably, placing ongoing pressure on the company.
See More
BigBear.ai Shares Plummet, Yet Savvy Investors Are Steadily Accumulating
Stock Performance: Big Bear.ai (NYSE: BBAI) has faced challenges in gaining traction in 2025, leading to long-term lows, but is expected to improve in 2026 due to resolved issues such as debt and high short interest.
Company Strengths: The company specializes in AI services, focusing on data ingestion, predictive analytics, and edge computing, which positions it well for growth, especially with recent acquisitions that enhance its federal market access.
Market Trends: Despite a significant increase in share counts and short interest, analysts remain optimistic about Big Bear.ai's potential for revenue growth and profitability, with upcoming earnings releases expected to show improvement.
Investment Outlook: Institutional buyers are stepping in, indicating confidence in the stock, while analysts suggest a potential rebound if the stock maintains support above critical price levels, with price targets reflecting a positive outlook.
See More
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- Revenue Decline: BigBear.ai reported Q4 revenue of $27.3 million, a 38% drop from Wall Street's $33.3 million estimate, primarily due to lower demand in Army programs, indicating vulnerability in key contracts.
- Net Loss Report: The company posted a net loss of $5.8 million, or $0.01 per share, better than the consensus estimate of a $0.05 loss, reflecting ongoing pressure on profitability that may affect investor confidence.
- Analyst Price Target Cuts: H.C. Wainwright lowered its price target on BigBear.ai from $8 to $6 while maintaining a 'Buy' rating, and Cantor Fitzgerald reduced its target from $6 to $5, indicating cautious sentiment regarding future sales expectations.
- Acquisition and Debt Management: BigBear.ai completed a $250 million cash acquisition of Ask Sage and plans to reduce its convertible debt from approximately $142 million to about $17 million, aiming to enhance financial flexibility to support future growth.
See More
BigBear.ai Reports Declining Performance Amid Cash Burn
- Deteriorating Financials: BigBear.ai reported fourth-quarter revenue of $27.3 million for 2025, a 38% decline year-over-year, pushing its market cap down to $1.8 billion and indicating that the company's growth potential in AI remains unfulfilled.
- Cash Flow Strain: Despite claiming to be in its strongest financial position, the company incurred an operating loss of $213.9 million, significantly higher than last year's $133.4 million, suggesting that ongoing cash burn could hinder future growth.
- Disappointing Revenue Outlook: BigBear.ai projects revenue between $135 million and $165 million for 2026, with a 17% growth expectation, yet this falls short compared to last year's $158.2 million, reflecting a lack of market confidence in its future.
- Competitive Market Pressure: While comparisons to Palantir Technologies have excited investors, the decline in revenue from Army programs places BigBear.ai under increased competitive pressure, making stable growth unlikely in the near term.
See More
BigBear.AI Reports Mixed Q4 Results, Shares Decline
- Earnings Performance: BigBear.AI reported a Q4 loss of $0.01 per share, beating the consensus estimate of a $0.06 loss; however, revenue of $27.30 million fell short of the $33.30 million expectation and declined 38% year-over-year, primarily due to reduced volume in Army programs, indicating challenges in key sectors.
- Cash Flow Status: By the end of 2025, the company had total cash and investments of $462 million and successfully settled $125 million of its convertible notes in January 2026, demonstrating significant progress in financial foundations that set the stage for future growth.
- Future Outlook: BigBear.AI projects full-year 2026 revenue between $135 million and $165 million, slightly below the consensus estimate of $164.29 million, reflecting a cautious approach to restoring growth amid market uncertainties.
- Analyst Reactions: Following the earnings report, multiple analysts lowered their price targets, with HC Wainwright & Co. reducing its target from $8 to $6, and Cantor Fitzgerald lowering its target from $6 to $5, indicating market concerns regarding the company's future performance.
See More
