Accel Entertainment Evaluates Chicago VGT Market Potential with $64M Annual Tax Revenue
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 08 2026
0mins
Should l Buy ACEL?
Source: Newsfilter
- Market Potential Assessment: Accel Entertainment is evaluating the potential introduction of Video Gaming Terminals (VGTs) in Chicago, with an estimated $64 million in incremental annual tax revenue for the city, highlighting significant market potential.
- Revenue Expectations: According to the City Council Office of Financial Analysis, the total annual gross gaming revenue (GGR) from Chicago's VGTs could reach $1 billion, providing a substantial boost to the existing $3 billion revenue, indicating strong market demand.
- Implementation Timeline: Although full implementation may take up to 10 years, Accel anticipates that the Chicago VGT market could start generating revenue as early as Q3 or Q4 of 2026, reflecting the company's confidence in entering this market.
- Capital Deployment Strategy: Accel plans to leverage its strong balance sheet and existing infrastructure to assess its capital deployment strategy for the Chicago market, ensuring competitiveness and sustainable growth in this new market.
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Analyst Views on ACEL
Wall Street analysts forecast ACEL stock price to rise
2 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 11.070
Low
13.00
Averages
13.00
High
13.00
Current: 11.070
Low
13.00
Averages
13.00
High
13.00
About ACEL
Accel Entertainment, Inc. is a distributed gaming operator in the United States and a partner for local business owners in the markets it serves. The Company offers turnkey full-service gaming solutions to authorized non-casino locations such as bars, restaurants, convenience stores, truck stops, and fraternal and veteran establishments across the country. It installs, maintains, operates and services gaming terminals and related equipment for its location partners as well as redemption devices, stand-alone automated teller machines (ATMs) and amusement devices, including jukeboxes, dartboards, pool tables, and other entertainment-related equipment. It also designs and manufactures gaming terminals and related equipment. Its segments include distributed gaming and casinos and racing. The Company offers amusement devices, including jukeboxes, dartboards, pool tables, and other entertainment-related equipment that enhance customer experience and engagement.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Strong Performance: Accel Entertainment's Q4 results exceeded revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates, leading to a 19.5% stock price increase and a new 52-week high of $13.29, reflecting robust market performance and investor confidence.
- Video Gaming Terminal Prospects: With Chicago's plan to introduce video gaming terminals (VGTs), analysts believe this could significantly contribute to Accel's future earnings, with projected revenues exceeding $100 million by 2027, enhancing the company's profitability.
- Market Expansion Potential: CBRE Research analysts noted that while uncertainty remains regarding Illinois prospects, the likelihood of Chicago launching VGTs is high, providing Accel with new growth opportunities, particularly in bars and restaurants.
- Investment Rating Maintained: Texas Capital Securities maintained a Buy rating on Accel, highlighting that its EV/EBITDA multiple is at a 23% discount to regional casino peers, indicating strong investment value and future growth potential.
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- Strong Earnings Report: Latham Group reported a fourth-quarter loss of 6 cents per share, outperforming analyst expectations of a 10-cent loss, indicating improvements in cost control and operational efficiency.
- Sales Exceed Expectations: The company achieved quarterly sales of $99.950 million, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $96.786 million, reflecting strong market demand and robust product performance, which bolstered investor confidence.
- Significant Stock Surge: Following the positive earnings report, Latham Group's shares jumped 25.7% to $8.10 on Wednesday, reflecting market optimism regarding the company's future growth potential.
- Positive Future Outlook: Latham Group issued FY26 sales guidance above estimates, further solidifying investor confidence in the company's long-term growth trajectory.
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- Record Financial Performance: Accel Entertainment reported total revenue of $341 million for Q4 2025, reflecting a 7.5% year-over-year increase, while adjusted EBITDA reached $56 million, up 19%, both marking all-time highs that underscore the company's strong operational momentum and profitability.
- Market Expansion Potential: The company anticipates 2,500 new video gaming terminal locations in Chicago, which management views as a highly attractive opportunity that would enable further leveraging of its fixed cost structure to generate incremental returns at compelling margins.
- Leadership Transition: Co-founder Andrew Rubenstein has stepped into the chairman role immediately and will transition the CEO position to Mark Phelan in August, marking a smooth leadership transition aimed at driving future growth and strategic execution.
- Capital Allocation Strategy: The company repurchased approximately 3.8 million shares in 2025, maintaining $297 million in cash and cash equivalents, demonstrating that Accel Entertainment will continue to focus on organic growth and acquisition-driven expansion while maintaining a conservative leverage profile under favorable market conditions.
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- Significant Profit Growth: Accel Entertainment reported a profit of $51.47 million for the year, translating to earnings per share of $0.60, which marks a substantial increase from last year's $35.25 million and $0.41 per share, indicating enhanced profitability.
- Revenue Continues to Rise: The company's annual revenue reached $1.331 billion, up 8.1% from $1.231 billion last year, reflecting strong market performance and increased customer demand.
- Improved Financial Health: The dual growth in profit and revenue has significantly improved Accel Entertainment's financial health, strengthening its market position in the competitive entertainment industry.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: With ongoing revenue and profit growth, the company is poised to further expand its market share and boost investor confidence, potentially driving stock price increases.
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- Revenue Growth: Accel Entertainment reported Q4 revenue of $341.4 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7.4% and exceeding market expectations by $5.74 million, indicating strong performance in a competitive landscape.
- Significant Net Income Increase: The company achieved a net income of $16.2 million for Q4, representing a remarkable 91.7% increase compared to the same quarter last year, showcasing improved cost control and operational efficiency that boosts investor confidence.
- Record Adjusted EBITDA: The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 reached $56.3 million, up 18.9% year-over-year, highlighting the company's ongoing enhancement in profitability, which may provide financial support for future expansion initiatives.
- Executive Transition: Accel Entertainment has announced the appointment of a new CEO, which is expected to bring a fresh strategic direction and growth opportunities, further enhancing the company's competitive edge in the market.
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