US Market Outlook: Key Economic Data and Tensions Impacting Futures; Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Rises.

Economic Data Release and Market Reactions

On Friday at 21:30 Beijing time, the U.S. will release a series of economic data, with the core PCE price index for December and the preliminary annualized quarterly GDP for Q4 being the most anticipated. The inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve is expected to show an acceleration in price increases for December, while the final economic performance for 2025 is likely to be strong, laying the groundwork for a more robust performance this year. If this is the case, both indicators will reinforce policymakers' increasingly cautious stance on interest rate cuts.

Key Economic Indicators

• Core PCE: Expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, both higher than previous values.
• Q4 GDP Growth: Anticipated to reach 3% year-on-year.

If the December PCE reading meets expectations, it will significantly exceed the Fed's 2% target, indicating a slowdown in the recent cooling of inflation. Analysts suggest that strong PCE data will further support the Fed's "wait and see" approach regarding rate cuts.

Market Performance

U.S. stock futures are down across the board, with the Dow futures down 0.13%, Nasdaq futures down 0.14%, and S&P 500 futures down 0.12%. Major tech stocks are mostly declining, with notable exceptions like $Google-A (GOOGL)$ and $Google-C (GOOG)$ rising over 1%.

In contrast, several Chinese concept stocks are also down, including $Bilibili (BILI)$ dropping over 4%, and $Ctrip (TCOM)$ and $Baidu (BIDU)$ down over 3%.

Nvidia's Investment in OpenAI

Nvidia is reportedly in deep negotiations to invest up to $30 billion in OpenAI as part of a new funding round, potentially valuing the AI startup at $730 billion post-investment. This investment is separate from a previously announced $100 billion infrastructure partnership.

Google Launches Gemini 3.1 Pro

Google has released the Gemini 3.1 Pro model, which doubles its inference performance, leading to a pre-market rise of over 1% for $Google-C (GOOG)$.

Intel's Struggles in Foundry Business

Intel's foundry business is facing challenges, with a projected loss of $2.5 billion in Q4 2025 and no external customers. The company must secure orders from major clients like Apple and Nvidia by 2026-2027 to avoid strategic contraction.

Tesla's New Cybertruck Pricing

Tesla has launched a new, cheaper Cybertruck model starting at $59,990, making it the most affordable version in the series. The price of the most expensive model, Cyberbeast, has also been reduced from $114,990 to $99,990.

Meta's Shift Towards AI

Meta Platforms has cut stock incentives for employees for the second consecutive year as CEO Mark Zuckerberg invests heavily in AI talent and infrastructure. The company anticipates capital expenditures could reach $130 billion by 2026.

Sanofi Faces Legal Challenges

Sanofi is being sued in Texas for allegedly bribing healthcare providers to promote its prescription drugs, leading to a pre-market drop of over 1%.

Conclusion

As the U.S. prepares for significant economic data releases, market reactions indicate a cautious sentiment among investors, particularly in the tech sector. The developments surrounding major companies like Nvidia, Google, and Tesla highlight the ongoing shifts in the market landscape.