Upcoming Spring Festival: Fed's inflation indicators, Berkshire 13F, and market schedules.

Berkshire Hathaway's 13F Filing

Next Tuesday, February 17, marks the deadline for investment firms to submit their 13F quarterly holdings to the SEC. Berkshire Hathaway is expected to release its report on time, drawing significant attention following Warren Buffett's resignation as CEO at the end of last year. Investors are keen to understand the actions taken by the "Oracle of Omaha" during his final quarter in charge.

Key Questions

• Will Berkshire continue to reduce its holdings in Apple and Bank of America?
• Has it sold positions established by former investment chief Todd Combs?

Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes

Investors will also closely monitor the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes set to be released next Wednesday. Analysts from HSBC suggest that the January minutes may clarify the rationale behind the officials advocating for a "wait-and-see" approach versus those supporting rate cuts. Current market expectations fully incorporate a 25 basis point rate cut by July, with a cumulative reduction of about 60 basis points anticipated by 2026.

Supreme Court Rulings on Tariffs

The U.S. Supreme Court has scheduled February 20 for its next ruling, with justices expected to announce decisions on February 24 and 25. The world is awaiting a potential ruling that could overturn former President Donald Trump's significant tariff policies, which have cost importers over $16 billion monthly. A ruling against these tariffs would represent a major legal setback for Trump since his return to the political arena.

Key Economic Indicators

On February 20, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the December PCE data, and the preliminary Q4 GDP figures will be released. Bloomberg economists predict a 0.3% month-over-month increase in the core PCE index, raising the year-over-year rate to 2.9%. Despite disruptions from the government shutdown, Q4 GDP growth is expected to reach 3.0%, surpassing the market's forecast of 2.8%.

AI Industry Developments

During the upcoming Chinese New Year, major AI models are set to be released, with companies like ByteDance, Alibaba, and DeepSeek competing for attention. DeepSeek's V4, expected mid-February, reportedly surpasses other leading models in programming capabilities.

Upcoming Earnings Reports

The earnings season continues with several key reports due next week, including:

• February 15-20: First Indian AI Summit in New Delhi featuring global tech leaders.
• February 18: Federal Reserve's January FOMC meeting minutes.
• February 20: Earnings from Energy Transfer, Leidos, and Medtronic before market open.

Market Closure Schedule

• Hong Kong stocks will have an early market closure.
• U.S. markets will be closed for Presidents' Day.

Investors should stay alert for significant economic events and earnings reports that could present new opportunities.