Deere & Co (DE) FY2026Q1 Earning Prediction
Deere & Co (DE) is set to release its FY2026Q1 earnings performance on 02/19 06:27:00 ET in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 7.60B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 1.92 for the FY2026Q1. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The analysis indicates a likely earnings miss due to tariff pressures, production limitations, and operational uncertainties outweighing potential long-term benefits.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Key Fact Data Drivers:
- Tariff Headwinds & Production Limitations:
New U.S. tariffs on European imports (notably impacting DE’s Wirtgen business in Germany) add cost pressures. While DE is better positioned than peers, Citi estimates "notable exposure" remains.
Truist highlighted DE’s decision to limit production in Q1 for the Production & Precision Ag segment, leading to flat sales and low single-digit margins—directly impacting core revenue and margin metrics.
- CFO Transition Uncertainty:
- Joshua Jepsen’s resignation as CFO (effective Feb 19) introduces near-term operational uncertainty. While no financial disagreements were cited, leadership changes during earnings season risk execution hiccups.
- Mixed Analyst Sentiment on Near-Term Execution:
Evercore ISI and Jefferies expressed skepticism, with Evercore explicitly warning of a Q1 earnings miss and "murky" near-term margins.
Despite long-term optimism (e.g., Morgan Stanley’s raised price target), consensus notes like Citi’s "slow recovery" and UBS’s "2026 bottom" imply muted near-term upside.
- Offsetting Factors Insufficient:
New U.S. facilities (Indiana distribution center, North Carolina factory) are long-term plays with minimal immediate impact.
Price realization efforts (a key market concern) may struggle to offset tariff-driven cost inflation and production cuts.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Short-Term Bearish Plays:
- Buy Feb 2026 puts (strike ~$580) to hedge against post-earnings downside.
- Sell covered calls for shareholders to capitalize on elevated IV (~27% stock rise since last earnings).
Long-Term Opportunistic Entry:
- Monitor for post-earnings selloff to accumulate shares if DE reiterates 2030 targets, as long-term Precision Ag and U.S. facility investments remain intact.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
DE Transcript
The earnings call presents mixed signals. Strong financial metrics with positive pricing and market share gains are offset by weak guidance in certain segments, such as large ag. The Q&A reveals cautious management responses to tariffs and production costs, suggesting uncertainties. While there are positive aspects like strong biofuel demand and tech adoption, the overall sentiment remains balanced, leading to a neutral stock price prediction.
The earnings call presents a mixed picture: strong Q4 financial performance contrasts with a year-over-year decline in FY 2025 sales. Positive elements include resumed share repurchases in 2026 and optimistic guidance on margin improvements. However, the overall sentiment is tempered by high tariffs, unfavorable geographic mix, and unclear management responses in the Q&A. Given the lack of a market cap and the mixed signals, the stock price reaction is likely to be neutral, with potential for slight volatility due to uncertainties and external factors.
The earnings call presents a mixed outlook. While financial services net income is up, concerns about production alignment with demand, cautious ordering, and pricing competition in CNF create uncertainties. Positive pricing and AI investments are promising, but wide cash flow guidance and tariff impacts raise caution. The Q&A reveals optimism about international growth and AI potential but also highlights market uncertainties. With no strong catalysts like new partnerships or record revenue, and given the mixed guidance, the stock price is likely to remain stable over the next two weeks.
The earnings call reveals several negative factors: declining net sales across segments, pressures from high interest rates, and competitive pricing issues. Despite EPS growth, the company's guidance is cautious due to economic uncertainties and a challenging macro environment. The Q&A section highlights concerns about tariffs, margin protection, and unclear management responses, further dampening sentiment. While shareholder returns are emphasized, the overall negative financial performance and market challenges suggest a likely negative stock price reaction in the short term.
DE Slides
DE Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Deere & Co FY2026Q1 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Deere & Co (DE) is scheduled to release its FY2026Q1 earnings report on Feb 19, 2026, Pre-Market (approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Deere & Co FY2026Q1 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 7.60B in revenue and an EPS of 1.92 for Deere & Co's FY2026Q1.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Deere & Co FY2026Q1 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Miss for Deere & Co's FY2026Q1 earnings, with a prediction date of Feb 19, 2026. Deere & Co The analysis indicates a likely earnings miss due to tariff pressures, production limitations, and operational uncertainties outweighing potential long-term benefits.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade DE Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of the Feb 19, 2026 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Deere & Co FY2026Q1?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company's earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They're updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
